The current deliverable is an outcome of the EU-project titled DACcelerate part of WP4 (Infrastructure, capacity and modal shift/Green deal) in the European DAC Delivery Programme (EDDP, under the WP structure valid until end-2022). EDDP WP4 has been led by Trafikverket who is also in various leading positions/WPs in TRANS4M-R and EDDP neo. The overall objective DACcelerate WP5 is to investigate the changes in work environment at marshalling yards that a transition from screw couplers to Digital Automatic Couplers (DAC)entails. Production at the main marshalling yards of Sweden and Austria is analysed and compared. These two marshalling yards represent significant differences in terms of traffic throughput, physical design and organisation of production personnel. Job tasks performed by different professional roles at the marshalling yard has been surveyed as well as how personnel interact in accordance with current work processes. The research method applied in the current work has primarily involved workplace visits and interviews and hence the investigation has required a close collaboration with operators of marshalling yards. For the case studies in Sweden and Austria this has meant a comprehensive and trustful cooperation with the operator Green Cargo and the Austrian federal railways ÖBB. The current project has been integrated in WP4 of the EDDP programme as well as aligned with unions and other stakeholders through workshop sheld during the period when the project was carried out.

Detta PM redovisar resultatet från ett kompletteringsarbete av en sedan tidigare framtagen modell för prognostisering av framtida resurs- och kompetensbehov knutet till svensk infrastruktur för spårburen trafik.. PM:et motiverar valet av kompletterande åtgärder och beskriver utfört arbete. Slutligen presenteras och diskuteras förnyade prognosresultat. 

Valet av kompletterande åtgärder gjordes med utgångspunkt i Trafikverkets långsiktiga budgetplanering. Denna kombinerades med existerande kunskap om kostnadsandelen i planerade åtgärder som förväntas bli knuten till personal med järnvägsspecifik kompetens. Kompletterande åtgärder med potential att få betydande påverkan på prognosresultatet prioriterades. Slutligen valdes att lägga fokus för utvecklingsarbetet i det aktuella projektet på modelleringen av (1) nybyggnation av dubbel-/flerspår och enkelspår, (2) underhållsåtgärder och (3) åtgärder knutna till utbyggnationen av European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS).

This PM reports the results of a supplementary work on a previously developed model for prediction of future competence and resource needs for Swedish railbound infrastructure. In this PM, the choice of complementary measures on the prediction model is justified and a description of performed work is given. Finally, the forecasts of future competence and resource needs are updated and discussed. 

To determine the focus of efforts made as part of the current project, information from the Swedish Transport Administration long-term budget planning was combined with existing knowledge on the cost share of planned infrastructure measures that is linked to personnel with railway-specific competence. Efforts with potential to have a significant impact on the forecast were prioritised. Finally, it was decided to concentrate efforts in the current project on the modelling of (1) the construction of new railway infrastructure, (2) maintenance and (3) measures related to the implementation of the European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS).

Prognosens utgångspunkt är infrastrukturförvaltarnas långsiktiga budget bestående av tusentals budgetsatta åtgärder med planerat år för utförande. Denna har samlats in från Trafikverket, Region Stockholm och Trafikkontoret i Göteborg. Med hjälp av så kallade åtgärdsmodeller föreskrivs hur åtgärdens kostnad fördelar sig över branschsegmenten; infrastrukturförvaltare, teknikkonsultbolag och spårentreprenörer. I (Svanberg et al. 2020) presenteras en kartläggning av branschens kompetens- och ålderssammansättning inom yrkesroller med järnvägsspecifik kompetens. Insamlingen av data inkluderar 16 branschaktörer och 58 yrkesroller. Personalantalet med järnvägsspecifik kompetens uppskattas till 5 865 personer fördelade över branschsegmenten på följande sätt; 3 654 st hos spårentreprenörer, 1 377 st hos teknikkonsultbolag och 834 st hos infrastrukturförvaltare.

Prognoser över framtida behov och brist på personal med järnvägsspecifik kompetens har tagits fram för tidsperioden 2019–2025. Det prognostiserade totala behovet av personal med denna kompetens vid år 2025 är 7 032 personer vilket är en ökning med 20 % jämfört med dagens antal. Det är främst teknikkonsultbolagens och infrastrukturförvaltarnas personal som beräknas påverkas av detta ökade behov. Den största personalbristen under den studerade perioden predikteras att drabba spårentreprenörerna vid år 2021 och då uppgå till 870 personer.

The starting point of prognosis is the infrastructure managers’ long-term budgets, composed of thousands of budgeted measures with planned execution dates. The budgets have been collected from the Swedish Transport Administration, Region Stockholm and Gothenburg office of traffic. By using so-called action category models, each action’s cost is distributed across different segments of the railway industry: infrastructure managers, consultant companies and railway contractors. In (Svanberg et al. 2020) a mapping of personnel with railway specific competence is presented. The data includes 16 railway agents and 58 different professions. The number of persons with railway specific competence amounts to 5 865 persons distributed accordingly: 3 654 persons from railway contractors, 1 377 persons from consultant companies and 834 persons from infrastructure managers.

The prognosis of future personnel need with railway specific competence is presented for the time period 2019‒2025. The total predicted need for personnel with this competence by 2025 is 7 032 persons, which is an increase by 20 % compared to today’s number of personnel. Primarily, personnel at the consultant companies and infrastructure managers are affected by the increased need. The largest gap of personnel during the studied period will affect the railway contractors in year 2021 and amount to 870 persons.