GRACE WP 1 on Oil spill detection, monitoring, fate and distribution, includes a component addressing an oil spill risk assessment methodology forming an important link in the chain of prevention, detection, control, and mitigation of spills. A structured overall spill risk assessment model for oil spills in Arctic and sub-arctic conditions is developed to be used in combination with the SNEBA and its add-ons to identify response capacity needs, priority areas, and localization of resources. The Arctic spill risk profile is highly related to the type of ship fuel used and quantities carried as cargo. The consumption of HFO in Arctic waters more than doubled from 2012 to 2015 but new regulations amended to MARPOL Annex VI will enter into force 2020 and will likely be followed by new Annex I regulations banning the use of HFO as ship fuel from 2023. This will significantly change the spill risk profile and the conditions for effective spill response. New hybrid fuel oil qualities call for tests and adaptation of existing response resources and spill recovery techniques. The presented spill risk assessment methodology is based on well-established principles and a large number studies and similar projects have been reviewed and subject for exchange of information. Efficient big data processing of AIS data and integration of data from ship data bases combined with statistics on ship accidents, enable credible predictions of accident probability, associated spill risk and its geographical distribution in Arctic waters. Low traffic intensity, sparse empirical accident data and highly varying ice conditions, however, makes Arctic prediction tools particularly challenging. The presented spill risk assessment method is applied for two trial sites; one in Disko Bay in west Greenland and one south of Helsinki in the Gulf of Finland. A set of Arctic factors is introduced in the method to take into account risk influence imposed by the presence of sea ice and other characteristic Arctic conditions. AIS data and empirical accident data were used to derive a monthly accident index for the trial sites and seasonal variation of the index was analysed. The Gulf of Finland demonstrate a correlation between increased accident probability and the presence of ice. The Disko Bay do not demonstrate corresponding correlation. The accident index derived for the specific trial site in the Helsinki area is essentially the same as corresponding index calculated for the entire Gulf of Finland area. The consequence component of the spill risk is quantified by a calculated spill volume in m3 for each specific identified accidental event and each identified dimensioning ship category. Associated probability and consequence figures are presented and compared in risk matrices to facilitate identification and prioritization of critical spill risk events. For the Disko Bay case, accidents (grounding, foundering, or ice damage) with a product/chemical tanker is clearly indicated as a high risk event in terms of spill risk. For the Gulf of Finland area, accidents with a crude oil carrier indicates the highest risk in the matrix. Expected increase of future sea traffic in remote and sensitive Arctic waters calls for enhanced preparedness and tools for prioritization of response methods, identification of risk hot spots, response capacity needs, and adequate localization for resources. Emerging spill risks follow with expansion of Arctic shipping and the risk profile will change dramatically by a stepwise transition from the use of HFO to distillate and hybrid fuels with lower sulphur content. New fuel types also require a revisit of existing response technique, its efficiency and potential needs for adaptation for new and future fuel types. The combined output from technical and environmental prediction methods developed within GRACE and its different work packages, will facilitate future planning processes for sustainable utilization and protection of Arctic resources, specifically by providing effective tools for planning of oil spill response preparedness and for the design and selection of adequate resources.