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Deliverable D3.2 Potential Impact Assessment
Responsible organisation
2018 (English)Report (Other academic)
Abstract [en]

This report looks at 10 technology groups in terms of their potential uptake and impact on modal shift in transport. Overall, the development prospects can be described as fairly strong for all groups, with significant activity and investment already underway and barriers in the innovation system reasonably well understood. Impacts on modal shift are largely indirect, highly uncertain and in some cases mixed between the positive and negative. On balance, experts expect a net positive impact (i.e. a shift away from car use). For those technologies related to vehicle automation there remains some fundamental uncertainty in terms of implementation pathways (cellular vs. dedicated networks) and the long-term positive impacts, which depend on the diffusion of mobility-as-a-service (MaaS) business models. Overall conclusions related to different types of modal shift are presented in section 4, below. Selected conclusions per technology include: Advanced fare management and beacon-based ticketing systems have a ‘soft’ impact on modal shift by meeting the user needs ease of use and reduced costs. Barriers are not primarily technological but related to standardization. Open data and information system integration providing data about both collective and individual transportation is an enabling technology for other services in this group, and thus has an indirect, ‘soft’ impact on modal shift by meeting the user need ease of use. Costs to open data providers are not high but economic benefits are uncertain and accrue in part to private developers and service providers. Organizational issues related to legacy data structures and API development can also be challenging. Traffic management systems can have a ‘harder’ impact on modal shift by prioritizing road use by public and shared vehicles, and a ‘soft’ impact by meeting the user need of reduced travel time and increased safety. Technological development is still required for real-time adaptive systems, both in terms of data processing capabilities and vehicle-to-infrastructure communications. Augmented reality technologies can have a ‘soft’ impact on modal shift by meeting the user need ease of use. Displays and interfaces for different environments still need to be developed. Voice recognition technologies can have a ‘soft’ impact on modal shift by meetingthe user need ease of use. The nature and scale of the impact is similar to Augmented Reality. Vehicle-to-everything (V2X) technologies have a ‘soft’ impact on modal shift by meeting the user needs ease of use and safety. This impact is likely to be negative in the medium-term, as comfort and safety for drivers leads to additional car journeys, but potentially strongly positive in the longer-term, when MaaS scenarios featuring autonomous vehicle fleets could additionally deliver reduced costs and improved journey efficiency. Electric vehicles can have a ‘soft’ impact on modal shift by meeting the user needs ease of use and reduced costs as a part of MaaS scenarios featuring autonomous vehicle fleets. In the absence of such a scenario EVs likely have no net impact on modal shift. Current barriers to adoption (upfront costs, range issues) are not expected to persist far into the next decade; roll-out of charging infrastructure will be essential. High definition (HD) maps and road databases can have a ‘soft’ impact on modal shift, meeting the user need ease of use and reduced costs by accelerating the availability of safe, trusted, effective autonomous vehicle fleets. HD Maps are available today; their inclusion in future MaaS scenarios would require significantly increased investment in keeping information current; updating relating to roadworks may be particularly challenging. Powering solutions for smart infrastructure are enablers for V2X solutions, and thus have an indirect impact on a MaaS scenario based on the ease of use and reduced costs. There remains great uncertainty about how the infrastructure will be powered in the future and via which business models those solutions will recoup their costs. Some of the most promising technological options (e.g. non-solar energy harvesting) are still in the very early phases of development. Smart textiles and wearable technologies can help make walking and cycling easier, safer and more efficient. In addition, such devices can increase awareness and leverage growing consciousness of healthy choices, encouraging people to walk and bike more. Barriers today relate to a lack of interoperability between these devices and other systems. In the future connected wearables may create privacy concerns.

Place, publisher, year, edition, pages
TRL, VTT, RISE , 2018. , p. 74
Series
Trafikverkets forskningsportföljer
Keywords [sv]
väg, automatisering, trafiksäkerhet, hållbarhet
National Category
Civil Engineering
Research subject
FOI-portföljer, Planera
Identifiers
URN: urn:nbn:se:trafikverket:diva-11688Archive number: TRV 2017/10665OAI: oai:DiVA.org:trafikverket-11688DiVA, id: diva2:1747058
Projects
CEDR call 215 - User Needs in a Multimodal Context
Funder
Swedish Transport Administration, TRV 2017/10665Available from: 2023-03-30 Created: 2023-03-30Bibliographically approved

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