The correlation between journey time by train and the train’s share of the rail-air market has been presented in several reports in the form of a curve, in particular when it comes to elucidating the effect of high-speed trains in Europe. The correlation has been proved to be stable in comparisons between different studies. When journey time by train is four hours, rail and air have the same market share, when the journey time is three hours the train dominates, and for a journey time of two hours the train can often replace air travel.
The development of this correlation over time, however, is not as well known. The aim of this study was therefore to analyse changes in the train’s journey time and market share over time and also investigate whether the curve has changed. A further aim was to study the development from Stockholm to different county groups at varying distances and with different supplies. The period from 1982 to 2009 has been studied, with data from SJ (Swedish Rail) and LFV (Swedish Air Navigation Services) and KTH’s database of supplies and prices as the foundation.
Journey time and market share from Stockholm to all regions in the whole of Sweden are shown in the figure at the top of the next page. The result is that the train’s market share fell from 67% to 46% between 1982 and 1990. It then gradually increased to 58% in 2006. It then increased rapidly, reaching 67% in 2009, while air travel fell to 33%. The market shares were thus the same is 2009 as in 1982 but much had happened in the years in-between.
The average journey time by train was almost constant throughout the 1980s but fell substantially between 1990 and 1998 when high-speed trains were introduced and subsequently remained constant until 2005. Journey times fell somewhat between 2005 and 2009. The market share follows journey time relatively well during the 1990s. Between 2005 and 2009 rail’s market share showed a strong increase without any appreciable shortening of journey times. Development during this period is probably due to lower prices for train journeys and the increasing importance of the environment when choosing a mode of transport as a result of the climate crisis.
As regards changes to the curve, development can be divided into three phases: 1982-1992 when air travel expanded, 1992-2005 when the high-speed train was introduced and 2005-2009 when rail increased rapidly, Between 1982 and 1992 the curve was pressed vertically straight down by 15-20 percentage points, i.e. journey time by train was almost constant but market share declined, probably as a result of greater frequency of service and lower prices for air travel. The converse applies during the 2005-2009 period, with many points on the curve moving straight up by 10-15 percentage points, i.e. the train’s market share increased but journey times were roughly constant, this time probably due to lower prices for train journeys and the environment’s growing importance.
The curve and the shifting of the points during the 1992-2005 period are shown in the figure at the bottom of the next page. Here, the development follows the classic pattern: the train’s journey times become shorter through the establishment of the X 2000 high-speed train and rail’s market share increases at the expense of air travel. The development was also influenced by the opening of Bromma Airport for competing air traffic in 1994, the incidents of 11 September 2001 and the establishment of low-cost air travel in Swedish domestic traffic in 2003.
All in all, over the whole of the 1982-2009 period, the curve shifted so that the train’s market share is lower for long-distance journeys where air travel dominates today, has been relatively constant on medium-distance journeys where a strong competitive situation continues to prevail and where the train’s journey times have become shorter, and air travel’s market share has fallen for short-distance journeys where the train is in a dominating position today.